Tucson Market Reports – What are your thoughts on getting more specific?
November 19, 2009
You may have noticed I’m kind of a numbers geek. I track some rather detailed statistics for the Tucson real estate market and make all kinds of lovely charts over on my Tucson market conditions site. A lot of that data gets put into charts, but never really explained in any detail. There’s data that I collect and analyze that I don’t even publish anywhere. I do a monthly citywide market analysis – and warn you every month that the market in this city varies widely from one side to the other – but never really talk about those different areas.
So I’m wondering, dear reader.
If I were to produce another 9 market reports, one for each area of the city, would that be helpful?
We could dive into smaller regions of Tucson, see what’s moving and what isn’t and in what price ranges. See where demand is, see how list and sales prices change over time and at what rates.
I was thinking we could look at 2-3 areas per week, spread them out over the month so you’re not inundated with 10 market reports in a day (if you’re reading this from the blog directly). And if you’re subscribed to just the market reports via email now, you could also subscribe to the part of town you’re most interested in, track that market segment more closely.
Would that be helpful to you? I’d love to hear your opinions.
Tucson Market Statistics and Report – October 2009
November 6, 2009
The Quick Numbers:
- Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $210,522
- Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $167,500
- Single Family Home Units Sold: 801
- Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 6.9 months
- Townhouse Average Sales Price: $139,228
- Townhouse Median Sales Price: $125,000
- Townhouse Units Sold: 71
- Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.7 months
- Condo Average Sales Price: $102,581
- Condo Median Sales Price: $99,000
- Condo Units Sold: 33
- Condo Months of Inventory: 13.0 months
- Citywide Average Sales Price: $200,993
- Citywide Median Sales Price: $160,000
- Citywide Units Sold: 905
- Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.2 months
Turns out, October was a lot like September. The average sales prices continue to drop, but the number of homes sold is increasing, the number of pending sales is still high, and the number of new listings is up a bit too.
All that activity is concentrated in the lower price ranges, especially in the sub $150,000 market. In fact, there’s less than 5 months of inventory in that price range – meaning there is decent demand for those homes. That would make sense, given the $8000 tax credit incentive to close before the end of November. As I write this, the vote to extend the tax credit was passed by the Senate and was sitting in front of the House…
I’ve been asked several times about what the future for Tucson’s housing market holds. There are so many factors – that tax credit extension, mortgage resets, the holidays coming up, there are too many to list. I’m willing to say that our housing slide has slowed – at least for the time being, but I’m not convinced it has stopped.
Here’s why:
|
Year |
Avg Month to Month Change, Avg Sales Price |
Avg Month to Month Change, Median Sales Price |
|
2006 |
-0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
2007 |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
2008 |
-2.0% |
-1.8% |
|
2009 (to date) |
-0.4% |
-0.7% |
If you track the change in average and median sales price month to month, you get an idea of the rate of change of the market – how fast it is going up or down. So in 2006, every month the average sales price went down 0.4% on average. The median sales price went down 0.1% on average.
If you look at 2008, you can see how bad of a year that was. Home prices were falling fast – 2% a month on average.
If you look at data from 2009 to date, we’re down 0.4% a month, which is slower than before. Note that the median price drop on average per month is 0.7% – you can see the shift in the price ranges of homes that are selling because that median value is centered around the bulk of the sales happening in those lower price ranges.
As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at my Tucson market statistics site. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.
Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.
