Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009
December 16, 2009
Our first area report! I’m not in love with this format – let’s see how this works this month and go from there. My raw numbers are in a chart at the bottom, along with the percent change from last month. You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.
Northwest Tucson covers such a large geographic area – including Oro Valley and Marana. There are huge track home communites and high end luxury communities. Looking at averages here doesn’t always quite cut it, but those averages can start to give us some insight as to the housing market in the area.
But despite the diversity of the Northwest, there’s still some clear indicators.
The lower end of the market is still fueling sales in the Northwest – in the $100-$150k price bracket, there are 5 months of inventory. There’s only 4.5 months of inventory in the $150-$200k price range. Those are fairly low numbers, nearly teetering into seller’s market conditions.
Which isn’t to say prices aren’t continuing to drop, despite increasing sales units over the last 4 months. Take Continental Ranch for example. In June 2009, the average home in Continental Ranch cost $197,193 (median $190,476). November 2009, that same average house cost $192,536 (median $180,400).
Compare that to 2 sales in November in the $1.0mil+ market – and a total of 96 homes listed in that price range. Luxury sales are still stagnant, but there’s no shortage of inventory.
Townhomes and Condos remain tough markets. For the price of an average townhome, you can get a basic free-standing house and yard. The higher priced townhome sales tend to be in the age restricted communities – Saddlebrooke, Vistoso Village.
The $400k+ market is where the months of inventory goes to double digits and stays there – the drop off in sales starts in the mid $200ks and just slows down even more from there. If you’re trying to sell in that price range, you’ve got a lot of competition. Unless you’re the best priced in the best condition, chances are you’ll be sitting on the market for a long time.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome | Condo | All | |||||
| Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $403,398 | +1.2% | $223,026 | +12.8% | $139,338 | +10.3% | $384,108 | -1.0% |
| Avg SP | $243,680 | -2.5% | $173,469 | -12.0% | $164,125 | +185.4% | $240,042 | -2.0% |
| Med SP | $205,000 | +2.5% | $178,450 | -13.0% | $159,750 | +177.8% | $205,000 | +2.5% |
| #Listed | 1736 | -5.1% | 138 | -21.1% | 46 | -14.8% | 1920 | -1.5% |
| #Sold | 248 | +11.2% | 8 | -46.7% | 4 | +100% | 260 | +8.3% |
| MOI | 7.0 | -14.7% | 17.3 | 47.9% | 11.5 | -57.4% | 7.4 | -9.1% |
Tucson Market Statistics and Report – November 2009
December 7, 2009
The Quick Numbers:
- Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $205,020
- Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $170,000
- Single Family Home Units Sold: 743
- Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.2 months
- Townhouse Average Sales Price: $140,944
- Townhouse Median Sales Price: $129,000
- Townhouse Units Sold: 71
- Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.6 months
- Condo Average Sales Price: $111,838
- Condo Median Sales Price: $100,750
- Condo Units Sold: 36
- Condo Months of Inventory: 12.9 months
- Citywide Average Sales Price: $195,721
- Citywide Median Sales Price: $165,000
- Citywide Units Sold: 850
- Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.6 months
Hello November! The holiday season is upon us – bringing the yearly slow down in home sales in Tucson.
If you look at the seasonal trends in the number of homes sold in Tucson citywide, you can see we traditionally peak around May and have slow winter sales. I don’t expect this winter to be any different. Sure, there’s a tax credit that might be an incentive for some, but there’s no urgency to move over the holidays for that – the deadline isn’t until the end of April 2010.
The average sale price dropped below $200k again, for the second time in 2009, coming in at $195,721, while the median is basically unchanged for the year. Compared to the start of the year, the average sales price is down about 10% while the median sales price is the same. (Okay, it’s $250 less. I’m calling that insignificant.) Since the average is heading down and the median is holding steady, that tell us the lower end of the market is still moving and the higher end luxury homes are not. There are more sales in those lower price brackets, enough to keep the median fairly steady, while the lack of sales of higher priced homes brings that average down.
The number of homes for sale were down a tiny bit, pending sales were down, and sales were down in November. Pending sales went from 2060 to 1747 – but we expected that, right? Remember, when that tax credit first came out, you had to close by the end of November. It would make sense that there’d be a huge push to close those pending sales by the end of November. Overall, sales were down 55 units, to 850.
We had 7.6 months of inventory at the end of November. Compare that to 13.4 months in November 2008 and 11.4 months in November 2007 – overall, 2009 has been kinder than 2008. Not that we’re out of trouble yet, but comparatively we’re making some improvements.
And, I’m happy to announce, the market reports for each area of town are ready to go. If you read the blog, you’ll see those reports coming up in the next few weeks. If you subscribe via email to only the market reports, then you won’t see those area reports unless you go looking for them here. If you want any of those specific area reports via email, you can sign up for that on each area’s page.
This is the Central Tucson page, for example. There’s no report yet (coming in a week or two), but the charts are all live, and you can subscribe to just the Central Tucson reports via email, if that’s an area you’re interested in. So, for example, you can see the difference between the price of homes on the market and the price of homes that actually sold in Central. Or the absorption rate for only single family homes in Central. Or you can just look at townhomes in Central – see the number for sale versus the number sold.
You get the idea. And there’s one for each of the 9 major areas of Tucson: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast. If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!
Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.
Pay No Attention To This Post
December 4, 2009
Hi there! I’m working on adding those market reports for the 9 areas of town. This is just a test to make sure things are working properly. Pay no mind.
No really.
Nothing to see here.
Move along.
(but come back on Monday when I’ll have November’s market stats posted!)
