Tucson Market Statistics and Report - November 2008
December 10, 2008
The Overview via Podcast:
Download Tucson Market Stats for November 2008 here (MP3) or subscribe to the Tucson Market Reports podcast here.
The Quick Numbers:
- Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $233,754
- Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $188,000
- Single Family Home Units Sold: 492
- Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 12.7 months
- Townhouse Average Sales Price: $148,501
- Townhouse Median Sales Price: $134,000
- Townhouse Units Sold: 33
- Townhouse Months of Inventory: 19.4 months
- Condo Average Sales Price: $121,253
- Condo Median Sales Price: $112,200
- Condo Units Sold: 22
- Condo Months of Inventory: 20.1 months
- Citywide Average Sales Price: $224,086
- Citywide Median Sales Price: $184,000
- Citywide Units Sold: 547
- Citywide Months of Inventory: 13.4 months
Well, we’ve hit our winter market. Sales are down, pendings are down, and listings are fairly stable, actually. Citywide, we came in at 13.4 months of inventory for November, which is roughly where were were last winter too. The only difference is that sales prices are down.
Citywide, the average home in November was $224,086, with the average single family home weighing in a tad higher at $233,754. Typically, those two values have a bit more spread between them, but the higher end market sort of dropped out, and those large luxury property sales aren’t there to skew values higher. You can see this effect in the median sales price as well, at $184,000 in November.
Typically, we’ll see this seasonal slowdown through about March. Most of the people out there buying over the holidays are the serious ready-to-go buyers, ready to cut some deals. If you’re one of those people out there trying to sell your home over the winter months, you have got to be positioned incredibly competitively right now. There’s fewer buyers, with a lot of choice - but if they’re sniffing around now, they’re usually serious about making a decision and moving.
If only to further prove the luxury market has stalled, the North and Northeast, the priciest areas of town, both have 18 months of inventory, the highest across the city, with the East coming in at the lowest, at 9.96 months of inventory.
As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at Statistics.Housechick.com. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.
Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.
tags: market reports, market statistics, tucson, tucson real estate
Tucson Real Estate Market Report and Statistics - October 2008
November 13, 2008
The Overview via Podcast:
Download Tucson Market Stats for September 2008 here (MP3) or subscribe to the Tucson Market Reports podcast here.
The Quick Numbers:
- Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $250,318
- Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $190,500
- Single Family Home Units Sold: 616
- Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 10.1 months
- Townhouse Average Sales Price: $164,626
- Townhouse Median Sales Price: $148,450
- Townhouse Units Sold: 50
- Townhouse Months of Inventory: 13.0 months
- Condo Average Sales Price: $114,971
- Condo Median Sales Price: $125,000
- Condo Units Sold: 31
- Condo Months of Inventory: 14.6 months
- Citywide Average Sales Price: $238,151
- Citywide Median Sales Price: $185,000
- Citywide Units Sold: 697
- Citywide Months of Inventory: 10.5 months
Buyers continue to follow the bargains - the South and Southwest sides of Tucson keep posting relatively low months of inventory figures, at least compared to the rest of the city, as home prices side in those areas and the housing becomes more attractive. Lots of newer construction there that can be picked up for $150,000 or less.
Citywide, we’re entering our seasonal slowdown: sales were down to just under 700 units, pendings were down a bit, and active listings were up about 50 units, which all combine to make our months of inventory pop up to just over 10 months. Usually, our sales taper off in winter months, and start to gain momentum again somewhere around March.
The median price of a home didn’t move off of last month, at $185,000, and the average sales price ticked up fractionally to $238,000 and change.
The Southeast had a rough month this October, posting only 2/3rds of the usual sales, and the average sales price dipped below $200k for the first time in about 3 years or so. Be an interesting area to keep an eye on - if prices come down a little more there, it could be a pretty attractive alternative to the Southwest and Northwest sides.
As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at Statistics.Housechick.com. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.
Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.
tags: market reports, market statistics, tucson, tucson real estate
Tucson Real Estate Market Statistics and Report - September 2008
October 15, 2008
The Overview via Podcast:
Download Tucson Market Stats for September 2008 here (MP3) or subscribe to the Tucson Market Reports podcast here.
The Quick Numbers:
- Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $233,893
- Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $190,000
- Single Family Home Units Sold: 714
- Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 8.7 months
- Townhouse Average Sales Price: $189,178
- Townhouse Median Sales Price: $164,000
- Townhouse Units Sold: 64
- Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.5 months
- Condo Average Sales Price: $142,902
- Condo Median Sales Price: $144,500
- Condo Units Sold: 47
- Condo Months of Inventory: 9.9 months
- Citywide Average Sales Price: $225,240
- Citywide Median Sales Price: $185,000
- Citywide Units Sold: 825
- Citywide Months of Inventory: 8.8 months
Wow. September was a funky month, to say the least. The average sales price took a nosedive, the number of homes sold went up, and months of inventory went down. Talk about mixed signals.
Here’s my take: Sales in the over $600k price range were down 42% compared to last month and sales in the $0-$250k range were up 11%. Combine those two things with a citywide slowly declining average sales price, and you get the massive citywide drop. That’d also help account for the downward shift in the median sales price over the last 2 months as well.
Check it out for yourself: look at the change in Average Sales Price in North Tucson and Northeast Tucson, typically the priciest parts of town. Huge drops in both those areas. The South and Southwest continue a faster decline than the rest of the city as large number of foreclosures in those areas continue to pull down prices. But then look at the Average Sales Price for Northwest Tucson - didn’t really go anywhere from last month. Neither did Southeast Tucson’s average sales price.
Months of Inventory citywide was 8.8 months, a small drop over last month, when typically we’d see this figure start to rise during September. Also atypical, the number of sales usually drop month over month in September, but they ticked up a handful of sales to 825 units.
Looking again at the South and Southwest, the number of sales in those areas are up and inventory levels are down - both positive indicators for those hard-hit areas. The question now is how much lower can prices go in that region?
Tucson is a big place, and the real estate market varies widely from one side to the other. Don’t forget to check out the market conditions for your part of town in the link at the top of the page. Click on Stats by Area, and you’ll see the 9 areas of Tucson as links underneath.
Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.
tags: market reports, market statistics, tucson, tucson real estate
Does Turnover Rate Affect Appreciation Rate?
September 13, 2008
I’ve been showing some first time buyers homes in a neighborhood called Country Club Manor. It’s a decent sized neighborhood, about 860 properties or so, and is often attractive to first time buyers on a budget. The homes were built in the early 1950s, and are usually 2-3 bedrooms, with a single bathroom. Average prices run in the mid $160s.
Because these are classic “starter homes,” the turnover is a bit high, at 2.97 years on average. Typical turnover for Tucson is somewhere between 4-6 years, I’m told.
My Buyer is a bit concerned that high turnover means low appreciation. Instead of guessing, let’s look at some actual numbers.
Here’s a chart of price per square foot for single family homes from 2000 to present. The black line is a smoothed trendline for Country Club Manor only, the red line is for all of Central Tucson.
To my eye, Country Club Manor appreciates just as well as the average home in Central. You can see it lagged a little in early 2005, but quickly caught back up. It’s a little cheaper to purchase a Country Club Manor house than the average Central house - but we knew that already! That’s why we’re shopping in the area.
An interesting exercise, nonetheless. Perhaps we’ll compare rates for the other neighborhoods with contending properties. I looked for a large Central neighborhood in a similar price range with a lower turnover rate, but didn’t have much luck. In that price range, homes just change owners more frequently.
Tucson Real Estate Market Statistics Report - December 2007
September 13, 2008
Stats are out for the Tucson Real Estate Market for December 2007 from the Tucson Association of Realtors MLS.
But first:
Agents reporting sales later than allowed is this month’s complaint. There’s a new threat on MLS of up to a $15,000 fine for those turning in status changes more than 48 hours late. We’ll see if that has any effect or not.
Seeing that warning made me go back and look at the closed sales figures pulled today from MLS compared to what was reported. In some cases, I found nearly 100 more sales, and in a month where there were only 700 sales or so, that’s pretty significant. I’ve updated the citywide files, and will go back through each area and recalculate. It may take a day or two, and I’ll give you a heads-up when I’m done. That many more sales can impact average sales prices, months of inventory, medians, all kinds of data that I track and report here. I think the new policy will be to calculate the past two months worth of information every time, so that we stay as accurate as possible. Given that, consider this info for December to be “preliminary.” (sigh.)
We’ll put the MLS reported figures in parenthesis, and the figures calculated with today’s data in bold. You see why these reports irk me? I like exactness.
- Average Sales Price Single Family Home: ($289,254) $284,839
- Median Sales Price Single Family Home: ($236,000) $230,000
- Average Sales Price Townhome: ($199,032) $202,121
- Median Sales Price Townhome: ($175,000) $175,000
- Average Sales Price Condo: ($143,281) $142,438
- Median Sales Price Condo: ($135,000) $130,000
- Number of Active Listings: 8708 listings
- Number of Sold Units: (682 units) 743 units
- Months of Inventory, or Absorption Rate: (12.8 months) 11.7 months
I’m going to hold off drawing any conclusions about what those numbers mean until I’ve finished updating the rest of the data. My apologies, I knew the reported sales would be at least a bit off, but I never expected them to be off by 10%.
In the meantime, talk amongst yourselves. Here, I’ll give you a topic: The peanut is neither a pea, nor a nut. Discuss.
Tucson Real Estate Market Stats - December 2007
September 13, 2008
Okay. I went back through and pulled new numbers because of the large number of sales that weren’t reported on time. Good news is that average and median sales prices were largely unaffected when you break those numbers down by area. The changes I found were all pretty insignificant in those metrics. The biggest impact was on the months of inventory figures (also called absorption rate). I’m not saying any miracles occurred in the market, but in some cases, the figure changed from 13 months of inventory to 10. Still not good by any definition, but at least it is more accurate.
So let’s get on with this show.
Unit sales comes in at 743 units for December 2007 which is slightly fewer than in November. Seasonally and historically, those two months are usually either very similar, or December is a tad higher than November. We’ll be keeping a close eye on this figure in the coming months.
Average sales price citywide is at $272,228, as calculated last night. Remember that I don’t consider outlying areas or manufactured/mobile homes in average and median calculations, as those aren’t areas and types that are in the market I service. That’s not quite the lowest point this year, but close, coming off a high of $307k in June 2007.
The median weighs in at $224,900. The median has been bouncing in this range for quite some time.
Citywide, we’re at 11.7 months of inventory. There are individual areas of Tucson doing better and worse - the East seems to be doing the best here, at 8.8 months of inventory.
Active listings were down a bit from November, coming in at 8708 units. This is typical - fewer people want to list their home over the holidays.
As always, you can look at the performance of the individual areas of town by clicking on Tucson Market Stats at the top of the page, and then on any of the 9 major areas of town, which will appear underneath that Tucson Market Stats link once you click on it.
Tucson Real Estate Market Stats - January 2008
September 13, 2008
Tucson MLS released their residential real estate market report this week for January 2008. I prefer to pull my own. As I don’t work in the more remote reaches of the large area encompassed by our MLS, I like to see stats for the areas and types of properties that I actually work with.
I’ll be working on some more detailed numbers over the weekend, updating the individual areas and graphs that you can find from the Stats link at the top of the page. For now, the short, hard numbers:
As calculated today:
- Average Single Family Home Sales Price: $299,866
- Median Single Family Home Sales Price: $218,000
- Single Family Homes Sold: 435 units
- Average Town Home Sales Price: $205,756
- Median Town Home Sales Price: $180,000
- Town Homes Sold: 49 units
- Average Condo Sales Price: $157,194
- Median Condo Sales Price: $140,947
- Condos Sold: 34 units
Which means Citywide:
- Average Sales Price: $281,600
- Median Sales Price: $210,000
- Units Sold: 518
Please remember that I calculate stats from only the 9 major areas of Tucson: North, Northwest, Northeast, West, Central, East, South, Southeast, and Southwest. I include only homes, townhomes, and condos.
Belated February 2008 Tucson Real Estate Market Stats
September 13, 2008
I’m late with the market report for February, and I apologize. I am frustrated with the manner in which I must generate these numbers. It’s incredibly cumbersome. There’s just got to be a better way.
But on with the show, eh?
For the Tucson Area, as calculated today:
- Average Single Family Home Sales Price: $292,441
- Median Single Family Home Sales Price: $219,000
- Single Family Homes Sold: 519
- Single Family Homes for sale: 7241
- Single Family Homes Months of Inventory: 13.95
- Average Town Home Sales Price: $198,340
- Median Town Home Sales Price: $170,625
- Town Homes Sold: 48
- Town Homes for sale: 831
- Town Home Months of Inventory: 17.3
- Average Condo Sales Price: $129,462
- Median Condo Sales Price: $126,700
- Condos Sold: 30
- Condos for sale: 585
- Condo Months of Inventory: 19.5
Which means Citywide:
- Average Sales Price: $276,685
- Median Sales Price: $205,000
- Units Sold: 597
- Active Units: 8657 units
- Months of Inventory: 14.5 months
I’ve pulled city stats as well as the individual area metrics and updated all of those files, which you can - and should - check out by clicking on “Tucson Market Stats” at the top of the page here, and then you can click on the individual areas to see how your side of town is faring.
I also split the average and median sales prices for the individual areas, as it was getting too crowded having 2006, 2007, and 2008 average and median lines all on a single chart.
Stats include only the 9 major areas of Tucson, for single family, town home, and condos only.
Which Price Ranges are Selling?
September 13, 2008
March Market stats should be coming out soon from the Tucson MLS, and I’ll be calculating my own here shortly. I was curious though: since there are fewer sales than are typical, which price brackets are selling?
This is March sales from 2007 and 2008, single family homes only. You can see the bulk of home sales are in the couple of brackets just on either side of $200,000-$250,000 price range, which would be expected given our average sales price and the typical Tucson home.
Look at those high end sales though. Not much difference between this year and last.
The big difference is right at that $200k-$250k mark. That’s the biggest change, where fewer homes are selling this year compared to last.
Which is what you’d expect, right? With the recent financing changes making money a little tighter for the average person, you’d expect the average home price to be where fewer homes will sell. The people buying high end homes probably have cash to do so, or a large down payment.
Interesting. The market hasn’t scaled down evenly overall. That’s something I knew intuitively by being in the market, but seeing real numbers to back it up is interesting.
March 2008 Tucson Real Estate Market Report
September 13, 2008
The overview via the voice of Kelley:
Download Tucson Market Stats for March 2008 here (MP3)
And the straight numbers:
- Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $291,590
- Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $220,000
- Single Family Home Units Sold: 647
- Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 11.0
- Townhouse Average Sales Price: $194,530
- Townhouse Median Sales Price: $168,750
- Townhouse Units Sold: 64
- Townhouse Months of Inventory: 11.4
- Condo Average Sales Price: $144,721
- Condo Median Sales Price: $129650
- Condo Units Sold: 46
- Condo Months of Inventory: 12.2
- Citywide Average Sales Price: $274,460
- Citywide Median Sales Price: $210,500
- Citywide Units Sold: 757
- Citywide Months of Inventory: 11.1
Remember to check out the individual areas in the link at the top of the page. Click on Tucson Market Stats, and you’ll see the 9 areas of Tucson as links underneath. I’ve compiled all that data, and the individual area links should be updated by tonight.
And if I set this up correctly, you can subscribe to future Tucson market reports by subscribing to my podcast.
Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.
