• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $220,674
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $164,950
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 532
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 11.3 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $154,998
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $139,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 65
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.6 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $106,500
• Condo Median Sales Price: $91,900
• Condo Units Sold: 33
• Condo Months of Inventory: 14.7 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $207,918
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $159,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 630
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 11.3 months

Well, we didn’t pop out of our January slump as nicely as I might have hoped.  Usually, we see a decent increase in sales activity between January and February.  While sales went up a tad, it wasn’t nearly as much as the seasonal trend would indicate.

There were 630 homes sold in February, up slightly from the 613 sales in January.  Seasonally, sales pick up a bit in February and keep doing so until the typical peak in late summer, around July.  I’d expect that number of sales to improve over the next couple of months.  Not only is the expiration for the $8000 tax credit rapidly approaching, but we’re heading into our usual high season.  I know my inquiries and the activity on my sites has increased recently.

Inventory picked up a bit, to 7137 units, compared to 6879 last month, which doesn’t surprise me – often inventory goes up at this time.  What I didn’t like was that pending units were down to 1712, down from 1907 in January.  Pending sales are a leading indicator of closed sales – when pending sales are down, that usually means closed sales will be down the following month.  We’ll have to wait through March to find out for sure, but I’d hate to see pending sales drop any further over the next few months.  We’re in a rather unstable market, and a series of falling pending sales figures would mean things are getting worse.  A trend to watch, for sure.

The absorption rate, or months of inventory, stayed stable from last month, at 11.3 months.  That means roughly one in every eleven homes listed managed to sell and close.  Again, seasonally, we’d expect this inventory level to fall as sales pick up over the Summer.

The average sale price in Tucson was $207,918 with a median of $159,000.  Last year at this time, we were at an average of $217,491 with a median of $165,250 – a decline of just over 4%.

For comparison, the average single family home in Tucson cost $220,674, townhomes were just under $155,000, and the average condo sells at $106,500.

There were 63 closed short sales and 217 closed bank owned homes, out of the 630 units sold total, which is just over 44% of the resale market in Tucson.  Last month, were were at 45%, so distressed sales are holding steady for the month. 

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $218,681
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $169,500
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 531
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 10.8 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $178,974
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $139,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 54
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 12.1 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $117,250
• Condo Median Sales Price: $122,000
• Condo Units Sold: 25
• Condo Months of Inventory: 18.8 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $211,009
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $166,450
• Citywide Units Sold: 613
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 11.2 months

Well, we can certainly tell it is January.  This is typically the bottom of the winter slow down. 

Which is exactly what we are seeing.  There were only 613 sales recorded in January 2010, down from the 752 we had in December.  Inventory ticked up, to 6879 units.  Typically, this is what happens every January – sales go down, inventory goes up.  Fewer people look for homes during December, which makes for fewer January closings.  And more people wait to get through the holidays before listing their house in January.  All very typical for the season.

Given higher inventory and fewer sales, the absorption rate, or months of inventory, went up to 11.2 months.  That means roughly one in every 11 homes on the market managed to sell.  That’s the kind of absorption rate we were seeing at the start of 2009.  I’d predict that figure will slowly come down as we reach the April deadline for the tax credit, and then as we hit our high sales season in summer. 

The average sale price over all of Tucson came in at $211,009 with a median of $166,450.  The average stayed about the same from last month, while the median ticked up a bit.  Last year at this time, the average sales price was $217,491 with a median of $165,250.  Prices are still heading down, but much more slowly than before.

Of those 613 sales, 78 were short sales and 197 were foreclosed homes.  That makes distressed properties about 45% of the resale market in Tucson.  That’s a huge share.  Given distressed sales are becoming the rule and not the exception, home owners not in distress are having to price about the same as those foreclosed homes.  And that hurts.

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $222,745
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $160,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 658
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.8 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $160,422
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $142,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 62
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.3 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $102,603
• Condo Median Sales Price: $99,750
• Condo Units Sold: 32
• Condo Months of Inventory: 13.9 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $212,494
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $155,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 752
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 8.2 months

Happy New Year!  Let’s take a quick look back at December 2009…

We’re well into our seasonal winter slowdown.  The number of homes sold citywide was down 100 from last month, coming in at 752 units sold.  The number of homes for sale went down about 300 units – following our trend of decreasing inventory during nearly all of 2009.  Even though the number of active listings went down, the months of inventory, or absorption rate, ticked up a bit to 8.2 months.  It was 7.6 months in November. 

All of those things – very normal changes for the winter market in Tucson.

Pending sales ticked down about 150 units too, which isn’t surprising.  The urgency is off for home buyers until we get closer to that $8000 tax credit deadline in April.  And many people elect not to purchase and move during the winter holidays.

The average sales price citywide took a $17k jump over last month to $212,494 – but don’t get too excited about that.  The number of sales in the $500k plus price range doubled over last month, which would push up the average sales price.  There were 50 sales in the $500k range in December, and only 26 in November.  Could our high end vacation home buyers be making a small appearance this winter? 

That theory gets reinforced because the median sales price citywide took a $10k dip over last month, to $155k.  Last year at this time, the median sales price was $170,500.

Last year at this time, the average sales price was $206,981, for comparison.

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

Northwest Tucson covers such a large geographic area – including Oro Valley and Marana.  There are huge track home communites and high end luxury communities.  Looking at averages here doesn’t always quite cut it, but those averages can start to give us some insight as to the housing market in the area.

But despite the diversity of the Northwest, there’s still some clear indicators. 

The lower end of the market is still fueling sales in the Northwest – in the $100-$150k price bracket, there are 5 months of inventory.  There’s only 4.5 months of inventory in the $150-$200k price range.  Those are fairly low numbers, nearly teetering into seller’s market conditions. 

Which isn’t to say prices aren’t continuing to drop, despite increasing sales units over the last 4 months.  Take Continental Ranch for example.  In June 2009, the average home in Continental Ranch cost $197,193 (median $190,476).  November 2009, that same average house cost $192,536 (median $180,400).   

Compare that to 2 sales in November in the $1.0mil+ market – and a total of 96 homes listed in that price range.  Luxury sales are still stagnant, but there’s no shortage of inventory.

Townhomes and Condos remain tough markets.  For the price of an average townhome, you can get a basic free-standing house and yard.  The higher priced townhome sales tend to be in the age restricted communities – Saddlebrooke, Vistoso Village. 

The $400k+ market is where the months of inventory goes to double digits and stays there – the drop off in sales starts in the mid $200ks and just slows down even more from there.  If you’re trying to sell in that price range, you’ve got a lot of competition.  Unless you’re the best priced in the best condition, chances are you’ll be sitting on the market for a long time. 

The raw numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $205,020
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $170,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 743
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $140,944
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $129,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 71
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.6 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $111,838
• Condo Median Sales Price: $100,750
• Condo Units Sold: 36
• Condo Months of Inventory: 12.9 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $195,721
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $165,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 850
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.6 months

Hello November!  The holiday season is upon us – bringing the yearly slow down in home sales in Tucson. 

If you look at the seasonal trends in the number of homes sold in Tucson citywide, you can see we traditionally peak around May and have slow winter sales.  I don’t expect this winter to be any different.  Sure, there’s a tax credit that might be an incentive for some, but there’s no urgency to move over the holidays for that – the deadline isn’t until the end of April 2010.

The average sale price dropped below $200k again, for the second time in 2009, coming in at $195,721, while the median is basically unchanged for the year.  Compared to the start of the year, the average sales price is down about 10% while the median sales price is the same. (Okay, it’s $250 less.  I’m calling that insignificant.)  Since the average is heading down and the median is holding steady, that tell us the lower end of the market is still moving and the higher end luxury homes are not.  There are more sales in those lower price brackets, enough to keep the median fairly steady, while the lack of sales of higher priced homes brings that average down.

The number of homes for sale were down a tiny bit, pending sales were down, and sales were down in November.  Pending sales went from 2060 to 1747 – but we expected that, right?  Remember, when that tax credit first came out, you had to close by the end of November.  It would make sense that there’d be a huge push to close those pending sales by the end of November.  Overall, sales were down 55 units, to 850.

We had 7.6 months of inventory at the end of November.  Compare that to 13.4 months in November 2008 and 11.4 months in November 2007 – overall, 2009 has been kinder than 2008.  Not that we’re out of trouble yet, but comparatively we’re making some improvements.

And, I’m happy to announce, the market reports for each area of town are ready to go.  If you read the blog, you’ll see those reports coming up in the next few weeks.  If you subscribe via email to only the market reports, then you won’t see those area reports unless you go looking for them here.  If you want any of those specific area reports via email, you can sign up for that on each area’s page.

This is the Central Tucson page, for example.  There’s no report yet (coming in a week or two), but the charts are all live, and you can subscribe to just the Central Tucson reports via email, if that’s an area you’re interested in.  So, for example, you can see the difference between the price of homes on the market and the price of homes that actually sold in Central.  Or the absorption rate for only single family homes in Central.  Or you can just look at townhomes in Central – see the number for sale versus the number sold. 

You get the idea.  And there’s one for each of the 9 major areas of Tucson: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

No really.

Nothing to see here.

Move along.

(but come back on Monday when I’ll have November’s market stats posted!)

So I’m wondering, dear reader. 

If I were to produce another 9 market reports, one for each area of the city, would that be helpful?

We could dive into smaller regions of Tucson, see what’s moving and what isn’t and in what price ranges.  See where demand is, see how list and sales prices change over time and at what rates.

I was thinking we could look at 2-3 areas per week, spread them out over the month so you’re not inundated with 10 market reports in a day (if you’re reading this from the blog directly).  And if you’re subscribed to just the market reports via email now, you could also subscribe to the part of town you’re most interested in, track that market segment more closely.

Would that be helpful to you?  I’d love to hear your opinions.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $210,522
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $167,500
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 801
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 6.9 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $139,228
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $125,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 71
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.7 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $102,581
• Condo Median Sales Price: $99,000
• Condo Units Sold: 33
• Condo Months of Inventory: 13.0 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $200,993
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $160,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 905
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

Turns out, October was a lot like September.  The average sales prices continue to drop, but the number of homes sold is increasing, the number of pending sales is still high, and the number of new listings is up a bit too.

All that activity is concentrated in the lower price ranges, especially in the sub $150,000 market.  In fact, there’s less than 5 months of inventory in that price range – meaning there is decent demand for those homes.  That would make sense, given the $8000 tax credit incentive to close before the end of November.  As I write this, the vote to extend the tax credit was passed by the Senate and was sitting in front of the House…

I’ve been asked several times about what the future for Tucson’s housing market holds.  There are so many factors – that tax credit extension, mortgage resets, the holidays coming up, there are too many to list.  I’m willing to say that our housing slide has slowed – at least for the time being, but I’m not convinced it has stopped.

Here’s why:

If you track the change in average and median sales price  month to month, you get an idea of the rate of change of the market – how fast it is going up or down.  So in 2006, every month the average sales price went down 0.4% on average.  The median sales price went down 0.1% on average.

If you look at 2008, you can see how bad of a year that was.  Home prices were falling fast – 2% a month on average. 

If you look at data from 2009 to date, we’re down 0.4% a month, which is slower than before.  Note that the median price drop on average per month is 0.7% – you can see the shift in the price ranges of homes that are selling because that median value is centered around the bulk of the sales happening in those lower price ranges.

As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at my Tucson market statistics site. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $217,013
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $170,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 714
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.6 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $140,385
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $135,450
• Townhouse Units Sold: 71
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 7.9 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $108,312
• Condo Median Sales Price: $108,000
• Condo Units Sold: 40
• Condo Months of Inventory: 10.9 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $205,148
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $165,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 825
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.8 months

Where did September go?  The year is flying by…

We’re heading into our winter slow-down.  Activity is actually a little higher than I expected, especially in the lower price ranges.  There are lots of buyers out there trying to take advantage of that $8000 tax credit – and they all need to close on a home by the end of November.

In fact, home sales in the under $200k range were 67% of our market in September.  Prime first time buyer home territory.  We see this activity further verified in the number of pending sales – 2090 units, up well over a hundred units from last month in a season where sales should be slowing down.  Given the higher number of pending sales, we ought to see that effect the number of sold units next month.

The average and median sales price citywide in Tucson made a small decline, coming to $205,148 and $165,000, respectively.  Active listings went up a bit, to 6416 units, compared to 6374 last month. 

The South side of Tucson had a very interesting September this year.  There were 100 sales in South Tucson, where last month there were only 73, leaving the area with 4.9 months of inventory, an incredibly low figure, given the general market conditions.  Despite the increased activity, the average sale price on the South side was still down from last month.  It’s an area hit hard with foreclosures and short sales – perhaps prices there have reached the point where they’re becoming attractive again.  42 of those homes were bought with FHA financing, which would be those first time buyers again.  34 were bought with cash – possibly investors picking up bargains.

As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at my Tucson market statistics site. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $220,065
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $172,500
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 736
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.3 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $154,058
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $130,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 61
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.8 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $109,085
• Condo Median Sales Price: $100,000
• Condo Units Sold: 53
• Condo Months of Inventory: 9.0 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $208,408
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $165,750
• Citywide Units Sold: 851
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.5 months

Some interesting moves in August in the Tucson housing market. 

Generally, real estate activity is down every August in Tucson, and this one was no exception.  Sales were down to 851 units.  Last month, we had 1053 homes sold, so it seems like a huge drop until you realize that was a peak market figure, and 851 houses sold is much more in line with typical sales levels this year in Tucson.

Active listings continue to drop slowly, though with the fewer sales, our months of inventory figure, or absorption rate, was at 7.5 months, citywide, an increase from our summer peak.

Average and median sales prices continue to drop as well, down 4% and 3% from last month, respectively.  Typically, with faster sales over summer, the average and median sales prices in Tucson tend to hold steady just a bit, and then start a decline as sales drop off in the winter months.  This is the pattern over the last few years, and this year we’re starting to see that happen again.  The only thing to counter the trend would be large decrease in inventory, but I don’t see that happening.  Most likely, we’ll slowly drop in sales and prices for the next few months.

The East side of Tucson had an excellent August – the only region in Tucson to record more single family home sales than last month, ending the month with 4.3 months of inventory (for single family homes).  That’s roughly one in 4 homes on the East side selling every month – not too shabby.  The East side also had an increase in average and median sales price from last month, at $194,665 on average and $168,450 median.

And in the interest of full disclosure, the MLS listed one $65 million dollar sale on the West side.  I removed this data point from my calculations here.  That’s either a data entry error or a very unusual sale…

As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at my Tucson market statistics site. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.