Tucson Housing Market Report and Statistics - Housechick.com

Tucson Real Estate Market Statistics – July 2010 Edition

Kelley Koehler — Fri, 06 Aug 2010 18:48:26 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $208,371
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $160,000
Single Family Home Units Sold: 703
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 8.3 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $125,261
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $115,000
Townhouse Units Sold: 48
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 12.3 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $87,476
Condo Median Sales Price: $84,000
Condo Units Sold: 34
Condo Months of Inventory: 13.8 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $202,592
Citywide Median Sales Price: $155,000
Citywide Units Sold: 693
Citywide Months of Inventory: 10.0 months

Sales typically dip in July – but a small dip, not this cliff we just fell off. Last month we had 1039 sales, this month there were only 693.

Couple reasons, to my mind. First, seasonally, that’s what happens in July – sales go down as we start to come off our summer peak of sales. Second, the tax credit motivated people to buy earlier in the year, so I think the sales figures we’ve been seeing in the past few months are artificially high. They were always unsustainable levels given the rest of the market conditions. I believe I said this over the past few months.

If there’s any glimmer of hope, it is that pending sales didn’t plummet; they went from 1774 to 1679 pending units. Inventory went down slightly. And, I’m also seeing more inquires and activity in the market in general, something my other agent friends confirm both here and in Phoenix. In my experience, that activity takes about 4-6 months to cultivate, so if those people buy and sell, we probably won’t see any effect until the new year.

The average sales price ticked up slightly to $202,592, and the median was more or less unchanged at $155,000. Last year at this time, the average was $217,455 with a median of $170,000.

While the number of homes listed for sale remained about the same – 6907 units compared to 6960 last year – the absorption rate went way up because the level of sales dropped. We had just under 7 months of inventory last month, and 10 months of inventory in July. That means at our current rate of sales, if no other homes come on the market, it would take 10 months to sell it all. A balanced market is somewhere around 5-6 months.

There were 75 sold short sales and 248 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property 47% of the market. Last month, distress sales were 43% of the market.

If you’re buying in this market, be prepared to look at a whole lot of distressed property, as that’s nearly half of what is actually selling. And if you’re selling in this market, you’d best be pricing competitively and making all your small repairs and final cleaning before buyers come through. There’s no second chances for sellers in this market.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

Tucson Real Estate Statistics – June 2010

Kelley Koehler — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 23:26:39 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $207,554
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $160,000
Single Family Home Units Sold: 910
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 6.5 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $146,990
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $134,500
Townhouse Units Sold: 80
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 7.6 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $94,564
Condo Median Sales Price: $80,000
Condo Units Sold: 49
Condo Months of Inventory: 9.5 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $197,562
Citywide Median Sales Price: $154,000
Citywide Units Sold: 1039
Citywide Months of Inventory: 6.7 months

June brings us the last of the tax credit bump in activity. Okay, so they extended the close period a bit longer, but my gut says the vast majority are closed and done with. The extension might help a few, but I would guess most closed and are done as scheduled by the end of June.

Because of that, in my humble opinion, we’re going to start to see everything decline. Yes, sale levels were fairly consistent with previous in June, but I’m betting that is about to change. And I think the number of pending sales we saw in June backs my theory.

Seasonally, we should be peaking now

In June, there were 1039 homes sold in Tucson – pretty much the same sort of levels we’ve seen for the last 3 months. But – the number of pending sales has dropped to 1774 units. That’s the kind of pending sales levels we see over our winter slump lately.

Inventory levels usually reach their lowest point right about now

Speaking of prices, the average home in Tucson cost $197,562 with a median of $154,000, which is nearly the same as last month. Last year at this time, the average home in Tucson was $214,926 with a median of $167,750.

There were121 sold short sales and 327 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property 43% of the market. Last month, distress sales were 42% of the market.

Tucson Real Estate Statistics – May 2010

Kelley Koehler — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 14:23:59 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $206,514
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $161,000
Single Family Home Units Sold: 882
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 6.7 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $138,002
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $124,000
Townhouse Units Sold: 91
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 6.8 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $92,833
Condo Median Sales Price: $81,500
Condo Units Sold: 52
Condo Months of Inventory: 9.2 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $194,664
Citywide Median Sales Price: $155,000
Citywide Units Sold: 1025
Citywide Months of Inventory: 6.8 months

May brings us new lows in Tucson home prices – I’ve been tracking real estate statistics in Tucson since 2006, and haven’t seen anything this low yet. Sure, we flirted with these levels back in November and April of 2009 – but the median was $10k higher at the time.

Overall, the average sales price in Tucson was $194,664 with a median of $155,000. Last year at this time, the average price was $212,442 with a median of $175,000. The average Tucson sales price has been hovering in the low $200ks for a while now, but there was a fairly decent dip in prices between April and May of this year.

number of sales stayed strong, at 1025 units

No surprise that pending sales were down though, given the tax credit deadline was the end of April. There’s a large set of those tax credit purchases that are all going through the system as a lump, and a good portion of them ought to have closed by now.

months of inventory – or absorption rate – in Tucson went down slightly

There were109 sold short sales and 320 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property nearly 42% of the market. Last month, distress sales were 39% of the market.

Tucson Market Statistics and Report – April 2010

Kelley Koehler — Tue, 18 May 2010 13:28:42 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $219,188
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $169,000
Single Family Home Units Sold: 887
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.1 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $169,916
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $158,250
Townhouse Units Sold: 92
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $114,105
Condo Median Sales Price: $104,750
Condo Units Sold: 42
Condo Months of Inventory: 11.8 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $210,426
Citywide Median Sales Price: $162,500
Citywide Units Sold: 1021
Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.3 months

Once again, sales were off the charts. April was a high sales units month, as was March. Sustainable levels? I’m not convinced. But the rise in activity has been welcomed.

Typically, sales start to increase around this time of year as we head into our summer peak. It’s just that the values we’re seeing now are normally what we’d see at the apex of the year, not at the start of the upswing.

There were 1021 units sold when I pulled data last week (and 1076 sales in April when checked today)

The number of homes for sale ticked up slightly from 7350 to 7410 units. Normally, we’d be seeing inventory taper off, not increase at this time of year, so that’s unusual activity. If the number of homes for sale in Tucson continue to increase over the summer – even with steady sales – it’ll probably trigger a small drop in the market. Too much competition for the same number of buyers means prices go down.

Speaking of prices, the Tucson citywide average sales price was $210,426 with a median of $162,500. Last year at this time, prices were at $196,629 on average, with a median of $164,195, which was an aberrant low value last April. Home sale prices have been wavering in the low $200s – $210s since 2009. It’s like Tucson is stuck at this value. Sign we’re hitting bottom? There’s too many other market forces to say that with confidence.

Pending sales, it’s worth noting, went up between March and April, with 2601 pending sales in April 2010. Pending sales are those transactions where the home is under contract but not yet closed. It’s a good sign for strong sales to continue, at least for another month.

average single family home in Tucson cost $219,188

There were106 sold short sales and 288 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property 39% of the market. Last month, distress sales were 37% of the market.

Tucson Real Estate Market Report and Statistics – March 2010

Kelley Koehler — Wed, 14 Apr 2010 15:31:33 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $222,124
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $165,000
Single Family Home Units Sold: 861
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $166,920
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $137,250
Townhouse Units Sold: 88
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 7.5 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $88,611
Condo Median Sales Price: $83,400
Condo Units Sold: 36
Condo Months of Inventory: 13.5 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $212,312
Citywide Median Sales Price: $161,900
Citywide Units Sold: 985
Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.5 months

WOW. March was a huge month for Tucson. The number of sales increased over 50% from last month. A sign we’re starting the upswing into our summer high sales season.

There were 985 sales in Tucson in March, and only 630 last month. I expected sales to increase because sales usually start to pick up around this time, but not quite that much. I’d chalk the extra activity up to the $8000 home buyer tax credit that is expiring soon – home buyers trying to secure a home sooner rather than later.

Which also probably means we’re just borrowing sales from the future. If I had to guess, I’d say we’re going to have a long slow winter sales season. Unless we see some radical market shift between now and then. If you’re thinking about selling your house, now is the time. Activity is up, inventory is down, and there’s a small window of opportunity here that I personally don’t think is going to last very long. Thru summer at best.

But I’ve been wrong before, and I’ll be wrong again. Only way to know is to wait and see.

Inventory improved in March – active listings went up slightly to 7350 but the increase in sales more than offset that bump, going from 11.3 months of inventory last month to 7.5 this month. Another sign we’re in our Summer high sales season. Pending sales were up too, from 1712 in February to 2370 units in March.

Breaking down by type, the average single family home in Tucson cost $222,124, the average townhome cost $166,920, and a typical condo went for $88,611.

There were 99 sold short sales and 270 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property 37% of the market. Last month, distress sales were 44% of the market.

Tucson Real Estate Market Report and Statistics – February 2010

Kelley Koehler — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 17:27:05 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $220,674
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $164,950
Single Family Home Units Sold: 532
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 11.3 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $154,998
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $139,000
Townhouse Units Sold: 65
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.6 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $106,500
Condo Median Sales Price: $91,900
Condo Units Sold: 33
Condo Months of Inventory: 14.7 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $207,918
Citywide Median Sales Price: $159,000
Citywide Units Sold: 630
Citywide Months of Inventory: 11.3 months

Well, we didn’t pop out of our January slump as nicely as I might have hoped. Usually, we see a decent increase in sales activity between January and February. While sales went up a tad, it wasn’t nearly as much as the seasonal trend would indicate.

There were 630 homes sold in February, up slightly from the 613 sales in January. Seasonally, sales pick up a bit in February and keep doing so until the typical peak in late summer, around July. I’d expect that number of sales to improve over the next couple of months. Not only is the expiration for the $8000 tax credit rapidly approaching, but we’re heading into our usual high season. I know my inquiries and the activity on my sites has increased recently.

Inventory picked up a bit, to 7137 units, compared to 6879 last month, which doesn’t surprise me – often inventory goes up at this time. What I didn’t like was that pending units were down to 1712, down from 1907 in January. Pending sales are a leading indicator of closed sales – when pending sales are down, that usually means closed sales will be down the following month. We’ll have to wait through March to find out for sure, but I’d hate to see pending sales drop any further over the next few months. We’re in a rather unstable market, and a series of falling pending sales figures would mean things are getting worse. A trend to watch, for sure.

The absorption rate, or months of inventory, stayed stable from last month, at 11.3 months. That means roughly one in every eleven homes listed managed to sell and close. Again, seasonally, we’d expect this inventory level to fall as sales pick up over the Summer.

The average sale price in Tucson was $207,918 with a median of $159,000. Last year at this time, we were at an average of $217,491 with a median of $165,250 – a decline of just over 4%.

For comparison, the average single family home in Tucson cost $220,674, townhomes were just under $155,000, and the average condo sells at $106,500.

There were 63 closed short sales and 217 closed bank owned homes, out of the 630 units sold total, which is just over 44% of the resale market in Tucson. Last month, were were at 45%, so distressed sales are holding steady for the month.

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast. If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Tucson Real Estate Market Report and Statistics – January 2010

Kelley Koehler — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 19:44:05 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $218,681
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $169,500
Single Family Home Units Sold: 531
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 10.8 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $178,974
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $139,000
Townhouse Units Sold: 54
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 12.1 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $117,250
Condo Median Sales Price: $122,000
Condo Units Sold: 25
Condo Months of Inventory: 18.8 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $211,009
Citywide Median Sales Price: $166,450
Citywide Units Sold: 613
Citywide Months of Inventory: 11.2 months

Well, we can certainly tell it is January. This is typically the bottom of the winter slow down.

Which is exactly what we are seeing. There were only 613 sales recorded in January 2010, down from the 752 we had in December. Inventory ticked up, to 6879 units. Typically, this is what happens every January – sales go down, inventory goes up. Fewer people look for homes during December, which makes for fewer January closings. And more people wait to get through the holidays before listing their house in January. All very typical for the season.

Given higher inventory and fewer sales, the absorption rate, or months of inventory, went up to 11.2 months. That means roughly one in every 11 homes on the market managed to sell. That’s the kind of absorption rate we were seeing at the start of 2009. I’d predict that figure will slowly come down as we reach the April deadline for the tax credit, and then as we hit our high sales season in summer.

The average sale price over all of Tucson came in at $211,009 with a median of $166,450. The average stayed about the same from last month, while the median ticked up a bit. Last year at this time, the average sales price was $217,491 with a median of $165,250. Prices are still heading down, but much more slowly than before.

Of those 613 sales, 78 were short sales and 197 were foreclosed homes. That makes distressed properties about 45% of the resale market in Tucson. That’s a huge share. Given distressed sales are becoming the rule and not the exception, home owners not in distress are having to price about the same as those foreclosed homes. And that hurts.

Tucson Market Report and Statistics – December 2009

Kelley Koehler — Tue, 12 Jan 2010 21:58:11 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $222,745
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $160,000
Single Family Home Units Sold: 658
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.8 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $160,422
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $142,000
Townhouse Units Sold: 62
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.3 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $102,603
Condo Median Sales Price: $99,750
Condo Units Sold: 32
Condo Months of Inventory: 13.9 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $212,494
Citywide Median Sales Price: $155,000
Citywide Units Sold: 752
Citywide Months of Inventory: 8.2 months

Happy New Year! Let’s take a quick look back at December 2009…

We’re well into our seasonal winter slowdown. The number of homes sold citywide was down 100 from last month, coming in at 752 units sold. The number of homes for sale went down about 300 units – following our trend of decreasing inventory during nearly all of 2009. Even though the number of active listings went down, the months of inventory, or absorption rate, ticked up a bit to 8.2 months. It was 7.6 months in November.

All of those things – very normal changes for the winter market in Tucson.

Pending sales ticked down about 150 units too, which isn’t surprising. The urgency is off for home buyers until we get closer to that $8000 tax credit deadline in April. And many people elect not to purchase and move during the winter holidays.

The average sales price citywide took a $17k jump over last month to $212,494 – but don’t get too excited about that. The number of sales in the $500k plus price range doubled over last month, which would push up the average sales price. There were 50 sales in the $500k range in December, and only 26 in November. Could our high end vacation home buyers be making a small appearance this winter?

That theory gets reinforced because the median sales price citywide took a $10k dip over last month, to $155k. Last year at this time, the median sales price was $170,500.

Last year at this time, the average sales price was $206,981, for comparison.

tags: housing market, statistics, tucson

Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

Kelley Koehler — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:01:47 +0000

Our first area report! I’m not in love with this format – let’s see how this works this month and go from there. My raw numbers are in a chart at the bottom, along with the percent change from last month. You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.

Northwest Tucson covers such a large geographic area – including Oro Valley and Marana. There are huge track home communites and high end luxury communities. Looking at averages here doesn’t always quite cut it, but those averages can start to give us some insight as to the housing market in the area.

But despite the diversity of the Northwest, there’s still some clear indicators.

The lower end of the market is still fueling sales in the Northwest – in the $100-$150k price bracket, there are 5 months of inventory. There’s only 4.5 months of inventory in the $150-$200k price range. Those are fairly low numbers, nearly teetering into seller’s market conditions.

Which isn’t to say prices aren’t continuing to drop, despite increasing sales units over the last 4 months. Take Continental Ranch for example. In June 2009, the average home in Continental Ranch cost $197,193 (median $190,476). November 2009, that same average house cost $192,536 (median $180,400).

Compare that to 2 sales in November in the $1.0mil+ market – and a total of 96 homes listed in that price range. Luxury sales are still stagnant, but there’s no shortage of inventory.

Townhomes and Condos remain tough markets. For the price of an average townhome, you can get a basic free-standing house and yard. The higher priced townhome sales tend to be in the age restricted communities – Saddlebrooke, Vistoso Village.

The $400k+ market is where the months of inventory goes to double digits and stays there – the drop off in sales starts in the mid $200ks and just slows down even more from there. If you’re trying to sell in that price range, you’ve got a lot of competition. Unless you’re the best priced in the best condition, chances are you’ll be sitting on the market for a long time.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$403,398	+1.2%	$223,026	+12.8%	$139,338	+10.3%	$384,108	-1.0%
Avg SP	$243,680	-2.5%	$173,469	-12.0%	$164,125	+185.4%	$240,042	-2.0%
Med SP	$205,000	+2.5%	$178,450	-13.0%	$159,750	+177.8%	$205,000	+2.5%
#Listed	1736	-5.1%	138	-21.1%	46	-14.8%	1920	-1.5%
#Sold	248	+11.2%	8	-46.7%	4	+100%	260	+8.3%
MOI	7.0	-14.7%	17.3	47.9%	11.5	-57.4%	7.4	-9.1%

Tucson Market Statistics and Report – November 2009

Kelley Koehler — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:24:04 +0000

The Quick Numbers:

Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $205,020
Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $170,000
Single Family Home Units Sold: 743
Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

Townhouse Average Sales Price: $140,944
Townhouse Median Sales Price: $129,000
Townhouse Units Sold: 71
Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.6 months

Condo Average Sales Price: $111,838
Condo Median Sales Price: $100,750
Condo Units Sold: 36
Condo Months of Inventory: 12.9 months

Citywide Average Sales Price: $195,721
Citywide Median Sales Price: $165,000
Citywide Units Sold: 850
Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.6 months

Hello November! The holiday season is upon us – bringing the yearly slow down in home sales in Tucson.

If you look at the seasonal trends in the number of homes sold in Tucson citywide, you can see we traditionally peak around May and have slow winter sales. I don’t expect this winter to be any different. Sure, there’s a tax credit that might be an incentive for some, but there’s no urgency to move over the holidays for that – the deadline isn’t until the end of April 2010.

The average sale price dropped below $200k again, for the second time in 2009, coming in at $195,721, while the median is basically unchanged for the year. Compared to the start of the year, the average sales price is down about 10% while the median sales price is the same. (Okay, it’s $250 less. I’m calling that insignificant.) Since the average is heading down and the median is holding steady, that tell us the lower end of the market is still moving and the higher end luxury homes are not. There are more sales in those lower price brackets, enough to keep the median fairly steady, while the lack of sales of higher priced homes brings that average down.

The number of homes for sale were down a tiny bit, pending sales were down, and sales were down in November. Pending sales went from 2060 to 1747 – but we expected that, right? Remember, when that tax credit first came out, you had to close by the end of November. It would make sense that there’d be a huge push to close those pending sales by the end of November. Overall, sales were down 55 units, to 850.

We had 7.6 months of inventory at the end of November. Compare that to 13.4 months in November 2008 and 11.4 months in November 2007 – overall, 2009 has been kinder than 2008. Not that we’re out of trouble yet, but comparatively we’re making some improvements.

And, I’m happy to announce, the market reports for each area of town are ready to go. If you read the blog, you’ll see those reports coming up in the next few weeks. If you subscribe via email to only the market reports, then you won’t see those area reports unless you go looking for them here. If you want any of those specific area reports via email, you can sign up for that on each area’s page.

This is the Central Tucson page, for example. There’s no report yet (coming in a week or two), but the charts are all live, and you can subscribe to just the Central Tucson reports via email, if that’s an area you’re interested in. So, for example, you can see the difference between the price of homes on the market and the price of homes that actually sold in Central. Or the absorption rate for only single family homes in Central. Or you can just look at townhomes in Central – see the number for sale versus the number sold.

You get the idea. And there’s one for each of the 9 major areas of Tucson: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast. If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!