Download Tucson Market Stats for September 2008 here (MP3) or subscribe to the Tucson Market Reports podcast here.

The Quick Numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $250,318
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $190,500
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 616
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 10.1 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $164,626
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $148,450
• Townhouse Units Sold: 50
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 13.0 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $114,971
• Condo Median Sales Price: $125,000
• Condo Units Sold: 31
• Condo Months of Inventory: 14.6 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $238,151
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $185,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 697
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 10.5 months

Buyers continue to follow the bargains - the South and Southwest sides of Tucson keep posting relatively low months of inventory figures, at least compared to the rest of the city, as home prices side in those areas and the housing becomes more attractive. Lots of newer construction there that can be picked up for $150,000 or less.

Citywide, we’re entering our seasonal slowdown: sales were down to just under 700 units, pendings were down a bit, and active listings were up about 50 units, which all combine to make our months of inventory pop up to just over 10 months. Usually, our sales taper off in winter months, and start to gain momentum again somewhere around March.

The median price of a home didn’t move off of last month, at $185,000, and the average sales price ticked up fractionally to $238,000 and change.

The Southeast had a rough month this October, posting only 2/3rds of the usual sales, and the average sales price dipped below $200k for the first time in about 3 years or so. Be an interesting area to keep an eye on - if prices come down a little more there, it could be a pretty attractive alternative to the Southwest and Northwest sides.

As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at Statistics.Housechick.com. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

tags: market reports, market statistics, tucson, tucson real estate

Download Tucson Market Stats for September 2008 here (MP3) or subscribe to the Tucson Market Reports podcast here.

The Quick Numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $233,893
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $190,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 714
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 8.7 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $189,178
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $164,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 64
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.5 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $142,902
• Condo Median Sales Price: $144,500
• Condo Units Sold: 47
• Condo Months of Inventory: 9.9 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $225,240
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $185,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 825
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 8.8 months

Wow. September was a funky month, to say the least. The average sales price took a nosedive, the number of homes sold went up, and months of inventory went down. Talk about mixed signals.

Here’s my take: Sales in the over $600k price range were down 42% compared to last month and sales in the $0-$250k range were up 11%. Combine those two things with a citywide slowly declining average sales price, and you get the massive citywide drop. That’d also help account for the downward shift in the median sales price over the last 2 months as well.

Check it out for yourself: look at the change in Average Sales Price in North Tucson and Northeast Tucson, typically the priciest parts of town. Huge drops in both those areas. The South and Southwest continue a faster decline than the rest of the city as large number of foreclosures in those areas continue to pull down prices. But then look at the Average Sales Price for Northwest Tucson - didn’t really go anywhere from last month. Neither did Southeast Tucson’s average sales price.

Months of Inventory citywide was 8.8 months, a small drop over last month, when typically we’d see this figure start to rise during September. Also atypical, the number of sales usually drop month over month in September, but they ticked up a handful of sales to 825 units.

Looking again at the South and Southwest, the number of sales in those areas are up and inventory levels are down - both positive indicators for those hard-hit areas. The question now is how much lower can prices go in that region?

Tucson is a big place, and the real estate market varies widely from one side to the other. Don’t forget to check out the market conditions for your part of town in the link at the top of the page. Click on Stats by Area, and you’ll see the 9 areas of Tucson as links underneath.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

tags: market reports, market statistics, tucson, tucson real estate

or Download Tucson Market Stats for August 2008 here (MP3)

You can also read the written overview, on that Tucson Market Stats link at the top of the page.  Or, you can subscribe to my Tucson Market Reports podcast here, just FYI.

The Quick Numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $270,889
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $207,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 701
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 8.9

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $159,904
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $159,900
• Townhouse Units Sold: 55
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 11.0

• Condo Average Sales Price: $131,687
• Condo Median Sales Price: $134,950
• Condo Units Sold: 50
• Condo Months of Inventory: 9.4

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $246,084
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $189,375
• Citywide Units Sold: 806
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 9.1

Remember to check out the individual areas in the link at the top of the page.  Click on Tucson Market Stats, and you’ll see the 9 areas of Tucson as links underneath.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

tags: market reports, market statistics, tucson, tucson real estate

or Download Tucson Market Stats for July 2008 here (MP3)

You can also read the written overview, on that Tucson Market Stats link at the top of the page.  Or, you can subscribe to my Tucson Market Reports podcast here, just FYI.

The Quick Numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $277,243
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $210,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 731
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 8.9

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $194,502
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $179,450
• Townhouse Units Sold: 68
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.2

• Condo Average Sales Price: $137,027
• Condo Median Sales Price: $138,000
• Condo Units Sold: 43
• Condo Months of Inventory: 11.9

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $263,400
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $203,750
• Citywide Units Sold: 842
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 9.1

Remember to check out the individual areas in the link at the top of the page.  Click on Tucson Market Stats, and you’ll see the 9 areas of Tucson as links underneath.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

tags: market reports, market statistics, tucson, tucson real estate

It says:

“It is a no-brainer that even if we have a deep recession, the University of Arizona will have access to federal, state,and private-sector money and that it will not see the outsourcing, downsizing, and layoffs that will beset U.S. corporations.  Research universities will be some of the most stable institutions in the country.

As oil prices increase, University of Arizona employees will choose housing where they can walk or bike to work.  Housing to the east and west of the UA campus will continue to hold its value compared to the general housing market.”

One would assume the areas north and south of the University would share the same fate.

Let’s see.  The average sales price, roughly a mile radius around the University, over time:

• During 2005: $290,746
• During 2006: $308,201
• During 2007: $277,202
• During 2008 to date: $292,667

An admittedly crude analysis, but something that will be interesting to watch.

or Download Tucson Market Stats for June 2008 here (MP3)

You can also read the written overview, on that Tucson Market Stats link at the top of the page.  Or, you can subscribe to my Tucson Market Reports podcast here, just FYI.

The Quick Numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $283,295
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $216,626
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 774
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 8.6

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $191,701
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $164,850
• Townhouse Units Sold: 78
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.3

• Condo Average Sales Price: $147,835
• Condo Median Sales Price: $149,700
• Condo Units Sold: 58
• Condo Months of Inventory: 9.1

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $266,810
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $205,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 910
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 8.6

Remember to check out the individual areas in the link at the top of the page.  Click on Tucson Market Stats, and you’ll see the 9 areas of Tucson as links underneath.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

By the way - if there’s something you’ve been dying to see on that page, or some other metric you’d be interested, leave a comment and I’ll put it on the list for consideration.

Anyway.  So I was perusing the latest market statistics put out by the Tucson MLS, and at the end of the president’s introduction, she says that the ratio between list price and sales price averages at 95.34%.

The list to sales price ratio is a figure that hasn’t been included in those reports for a while, at least not in a prominent manner, like it used to be.

So I’m looking at that 95% sales price to list price ratio, and I’m thinking - of my most recent buyers and sellers, no one paid 95% of list.  Most of my buyers found very well priced homes, moved quickly, and got those houses.  My last few listings haven’t closed yet, so I can’t disclose specifics, but we’re pretty darn close to list price on those too.

What all the averages and numbers don’t take into account is individual pricing.  Sure, maybe we can use average numbers if the house is average and the price is average.  But sometimes, we’re looking at a new listing, with a fabulous price - and there’s no way you’ll get it for 95% of list.  Heck, I’ve been in bidding wars and multiple counter offers several times this year.

There seems to be a perception that buyers can get sharp discounts off of every house.  And I’ll gladly agree that there are still vastly overpriced homes out there where that applies.  But it isn’t a hard and fast rule.  You can’t just take 5% off every list price and expect that to be accepted.  Some sellers ARE pricing very well, are demonstrating clear value, and their houses are selling fast.  You’ve really got to analyze each home individually, on it’s own relative merits, before making a decision as to value.

Back to my numbers now.  I wonder - if you track the rate of change of, say, average sales price or active listings, would there be too much bounce in the data, especially on a per area basis?  And would smoothing it take away any value that data might have had?  Anyone?

 
or Download Tucson Market Stats for April 2008 here (MP3)

And the straight numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $281,405
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $209,950
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 710
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 9.9

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $224,725
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $202,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 83
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.0

• Condo Average Sales Price: $132,961
• Condo Median Sales Price: $130,264
• Condo Units Sold: 59
• Condo Months of Inventory: 10.6

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $265,605
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $200,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 852
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 9.9

Remember to check out the individual areas in the link at the top of the page.  Click on Tucson Market Stats, and you’ll see the 9 areas of Tucson as links underneath.

And if I set this up correctly, you can subscribe to future Tucson market reports by subscribing to my podcast.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

Download Tucson Market Stats for March 2008 here (MP3)

And the straight numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $291,590
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $220,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 647
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 11.0

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $194,530
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $168,750
• Townhouse Units Sold: 64
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 11.4

• Condo Average Sales Price: $144,721
• Condo Median Sales Price: $129650
• Condo Units Sold: 46
• Condo Months of Inventory: 12.2

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $274,460
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $210,500
• Citywide Units Sold: 757
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 11.1

Remember to check out the individual areas in the link at the top of the page.  Click on Tucson Market Stats, and you’ll see the 9 areas of Tucson as links underneath. I’ve compiled all that data, and the individual area links should be updated by tonight.

And if I set this up correctly, you can subscribe to future Tucson market reports by subscribing to my podcast.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

This is March sales from 2007 and 2008, single family homes only.  You can see the bulk of home sales are in the couple of brackets just on either side of $200,000-$250,000 price range, which would be expected given our average sales price and the typical Tucson home.

Look at those high end sales though.  Not much difference between this year and last.

The big difference is right at that $200k-$250k mark.  That’s the biggest change, where fewer homes are selling this year compared to last.

Which is what you’d expect, right?  With the recent financing changes making money a little tighter for the average person, you’d expect the average home price to be where fewer homes will sell.  The people buying high end homes probably have cash to do so, or a large down payment. 

Interesting.  The market hasn’t scaled down evenly overall.  That’s something I knew intuitively by being in the market, but seeing real numbers to back it up is interesting.